Standing here on the threshold of the third decade of the 21st century, we’ve watched the Digital Age transmogrify into the Information Age. Now awash with a digital record of everything that’s ever been said, written or happened, from area news to Aristotle’s ethical teachings, the barrier to whatever else we need or want to know is literally no higher than the tap of a finger. And if being up-to-the-minute isn’t fast enough, we now have the world, and parts of the cosmos, available in real-time.
And all of this information is a good thing — until it isn’t. In his song, “Against the Wind,” Bob Seger lamented that deadlines and commitments made him have to decide, “What to leave in, what to leave out.” As digitally driven information morphs from handy to firehose overload, we have to learn how to consume it with increasing discernment – what to leave in, what to leave out.
As the children of the Information Age, we’re constantly and increasingly at risk of becoming victims and/or purveyors of a potentially dangerous phenomenon: Availability Cascade. It occurs when we’re exposed to something so much — a maxim, a meme, misinformation or disinformation — that we begin to accept it as truth and reality, and worse, act on it without confirming accuracy or relevance. Here’s an old story from the Analog Age that demonstrates the power of Availability Cascade.
Technology / General
Jim Blasingame’s 2018 Crystal Ball Predictions — and what actually happened
Here are my 2018 predictions and what actually happened. My prior, 18-year accuracy is 73%.
Tech Stuff
1. Prediction: As a technology platform, blockchain stops being a novelty in 2018.
Actual: Every major corporation and government now has a blockchain strategy. +1
2. Multi-year prediction: Blockchain will be the next Internet-class disruption.
Actual: Blockchain variations are becoming the future of Digital Trust, and therefore, more disruptive to any analog legacy entities. +1
3. Prediction: As your online activity grows – digital tools, games, social media, IOT, etc. – you’ll become increasingly aware that you are, in fact, the product being sold.
Actual: Surveys show online users are becoming increasingly concerned and discerning of their online behavior, especially social media. +1
4. Prediction: Scrutiny of Big Data platforms, like Google, Facebook, Amazon, will increase regarding manipulation, privacy and security.
Actual: Congress, the E.U. and users are investigating behavior of these platforms. +1
5. Prediction: Bitcoin will not become a stable store of value (see Tulipomania).
Actual: In the past 365 days, Bitcoin peaked at $19,783 on the way to below $4,000 and dropping. +1
Are you prepared for the inevitable business disruption?
This week marks an ignominious anniversary. On August 13, 2003, a single outage in the electric grid cascaded across eight northeastern states, putting 55 million people in the dark for days, and thousands of businesses out of business. The Great Blackout of ’03 was a catastrophic reminder that we’re all one nosy squirrel in a transformer away from an instantaneous, put-you-out-of-business event.
Fifteen years later, the evidence isn’t in favor of less exposure for the next 15. Consider this report from CNBC: “The FBI warned Russian computer hackers had compromised hundreds of thousands of home and office routers.” And this one from the Department of Homeland Security: “Russian government cyber actors have been targeting U.S. critical infrastructure sectors, including energy, nuclear and commercial facilities, since at least March 2016.”
In 2003, most businesses surveyed reported they weren’t unaware of a potential business disruption, but incredibly, they also admitted they weren’t prepared for one. Thankfully, that response is different these days, as one of our recent online polls indicated.
Mobile Computing Will Dominate Your Future
What if I told you that seven-of-ten of the prospects and customers in your market can’t find your business? You’d be very disturbed by that, wouldn’t you?
Now, what if I told you that three-fourths of the calls your prospects and customers want to make to your business are not getting through? Would I be able to see the veins in your neck as you raise your voice to declare that such a thing would be impossible?
Well, in the past year or so, addressing small business audiences around the country, I’ve asked this simple question: “How many of you have a website that conforms to the small screen – a mobile website?” I’m sorry to report that the number of attendees who raised their hands – across multiple industries – was in the vast minority.
Jim Blasingame’s 2018 Crystal Ball Predictions
Here are my 2018 predictions. My 18-year accuracy is 73%.
Tech Stuff
1. Remember this prediction I made in 2016? “Expect to hear more about blockchain technology, disconnected from Bitcoin.” As a technology platform, blockchain stops being a novelty in 2018.
2. Multi-year prediction: Blockchain, and variations on the theme, will be the next Internet-class disruption, except it will be a much greater one. You’ve been warned.
3. Crypto-currency (Bitcoin is just one of many) is the money of the future, but the future isn’t here yet. As long as there’s high speculation in a currency – crypto or otherwise – it won’t be a dependable, stable store of value (see Tulipomania).
4. You’ll become increasingly aware of a new concept – digital ethics – as you discover that by using apps, games, social media, virtual/augmented reality, digital assistants, etc., you and your online behavior, are in fact, the product being sold.
5. One positive result of the above prediction will be your increased scrutiny of how Big Corporations employ digital leverage -artificial intelligence, Big Data, etc. – regarding manipulation, privacy and security.
Naisbitt’s Razor: The great small business advantage
On my radio program, beginning in 1998, I started interviewing telecom experts on something called broadband Internet connection. It would be the replacement for dialup over POTS – plain old telephone service. At that point, like the Internet itself, the “big pipe” was so new that less than 4% of households and almost no businesses had broadband Internet connection.
Reporting on this emerging capability, I made the easy prediction that the world would change when broadband became ubiquitous and broadly adopted – which it did. But the harder prediction – which I didn’t make – would have been that the real game-changer would take the form of mobile computing on the tiny screens of magic wands we call smartphones. Today, with mobile networks delivering fourth generation connectivity – 4G – almost everywhere, and 5G on the way, mobile computing has disrupted the marketplace in unprecedented ways by giving consumers exciting new expectations.
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