Standing here on the threshold of the third decade of the 21st century, we’ve watched the Digital Age transmogrify into the Information Age. Now awash with a digital record of everything that’s ever been said, written or happened, from area news to Aristotle’s ethical teachings, the barrier to whatever else we need or want to know is literally no higher than the tap of a finger. And if being up-to-the-minute isn’t fast enough, we now have the world, and parts of the cosmos, available in real-time.
And all of this information is a good thing — until it isn’t. In his song, “Against the Wind,” Bob Seger lamented that deadlines and commitments made him have to decide, “What to leave in, what to leave out.” As digitally driven information morphs from handy to firehose overload, we have to learn how to consume it with increasing discernment – what to leave in, what to leave out.
As the children of the Information Age, we’re constantly and increasingly at risk of becoming victims and/or purveyors of a potentially dangerous phenomenon: Availability Cascade. It occurs when we’re exposed to something so much — a maxim, a meme, misinformation or disinformation — that we begin to accept it as truth and reality, and worse, act on it without confirming accuracy or relevance. Here’s an old story from the Analog Age that demonstrates the power of Availability Cascade.
Archives for December 2018
In defense of the misunderstood scrooge
This is Jim’s traditional Christmas column.
Some say I’m a scrooge. They might be right.
Here are three exhibits (some say excuses) in my defense of this indictment:
1. The early part of my career was spent in retail. Retailers know what that job does to your holiday spirit. There’s a syndrome for everything else; why not one for retail survivors? Let’s call it RPTHSS: Retail Post-Traumatic Holiday Shock Syndrome.
2. Since I don’t wait until the holidays to give someone a gift, I just don’t get all worked up about holiday giving. Not that the ladies mind getting stuff all year (let’s not lose our heads!). It’s just that they want me to be giddy about giving at Christmas-time. Giddy? Bah! Humbug!
3. As an avowed and devout contrarian it would be antithetical for me to feel obligated to do what everyone else is doing. And if there’s one thing that has become part and parcel of the holiday season, it is obligation. For example:
a. If someone gives my significant other and me a last-minute Christmas gift, “Other” feels obligated to reciprocate. Not me. I’ll do something nice for them in March.
b. After the Christmas cards have been sent, if an incoming card is received from someone not on your list, do you rush to get a card out to them? I don’t. Maybe next year. In “The World, According To Ebenezer Blasingame,” giving should be voluntary, not obligatory. In fact, to a scrooge, not reciprocating is endearing.
Jim Blasingame’s 2018 Crystal Ball Predictions — and what actually happened
Here are my 2018 predictions and what actually happened. My prior, 18-year accuracy is 73%.
Tech Stuff
1. Prediction: As a technology platform, blockchain stops being a novelty in 2018.
Actual: Every major corporation and government now has a blockchain strategy. +1
2. Multi-year prediction: Blockchain will be the next Internet-class disruption.
Actual: Blockchain variations are becoming the future of Digital Trust, and therefore, more disruptive to any analog legacy entities. +1
3. Prediction: As your online activity grows – digital tools, games, social media, IOT, etc. – you’ll become increasingly aware that you are, in fact, the product being sold.
Actual: Surveys show online users are becoming increasingly concerned and discerning of their online behavior, especially social media. +1
4. Prediction: Scrutiny of Big Data platforms, like Google, Facebook, Amazon, will increase regarding manipulation, privacy and security.
Actual: Congress, the E.U. and users are investigating behavior of these platforms. +1
5. Prediction: Bitcoin will not become a stable store of value (see Tulipomania).
Actual: In the past 365 days, Bitcoin peaked at $19,783 on the way to below $4,000 and dropping. +1
Dispelling the myths of ownership
Now that the economy is rocking and rolling, you’re increasingly likely to meet a starry-eyed human babbling on about becoming a business owner.
Probing for the object of this person’s entrepreneurial infatuation will precipitate what, where, how and when questions and, finally, the most important question: Why do you want to own a business? Answers to this last question, unfortunately, often produce what I call “The Myths of Small Business Ownership.” Here are the four most prominent ones:
Myth 1: When I’m an owner, I’ll be my own boss.
That’s right; you won’t have an employer telling you what to do. But you’ll trade that one boss for many others: customers, landlords, bankers, the IRS, regulators, even employees.
Modern management is more about inspiring, leading and serving than “bossing.” In a small business, everyone must wear several hats and the dominator management model doesn’t work well in this 21st-century multi-tasking environment.
Personal service businesses: Think prices, not wages
Millions of small businesses sell personal services like consulting, website development, or janitorial services, instead of something tangible like a computer or a kumquat.
Unfortunately, pricing a service is not as intuitive as a tangible product. Consequently, service businesses too often don’t charge enough to sustain themselves profitably because of how they think about what they sell to customers.
Don’t make the professionally fatal mistake of comparing what you charge customers to deliver your product — a service — to how much you would expect to make per hour as an employee. Doing so, to paraphrase Mark Twain, is like comparing lightning to a lightning bug. You must think like a business, not an employee. You have to think pricing, not wages. Here’s why:
1. You’re a business now, which means you offer customers a price list, like you would see on a wholesale catalog or a restaurant menu, not a wage list. And you collect revenue, which is what businesses produce to create the gross profit that pays expenses, including the salaries, taxes and benefits of employees — and owners.