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National and Global Economy

The Third Law of Stupid

May 31, 2026 by Jim Blasingame

By Jim Blasingame ©2026

In his excellent little gem, “The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity,” author Carlo M. Cipolla crystalizes the impact stupid people have on the rest of us. You know. When we aren’t being one of those people.

Cipolla breaks human behavior into four quadrants and establishes five laws with which to identify and manage others when they exhibit stupidity in our presence. Of course, I encourage you to buy Cipolla’s book and avail yourself of all his wisdom. But for our purpose here, we’re only going to deal with Cipolla’s cardinal behavior found in his Third Law:

“A stupid person is someone who causes losses to another person, or group of persons, while himself deriving no gain, and possibly incurring losses.”

Take a sec and think about that behavior and people you know who this law describes. I’ll wait here. Hmm … hmm … hmm …

We’ve all known stupid people but have probably miscategorized them. When someone opposes us on a matter about which we’re very serious, if not passionate, well, then, we’re likely to minimize their position by declaring it – and them – to be stupid. But Cipolla would challenge us.

During that discussion/argument/negotiation, our antagonist likely holds the opposing view because he anticipates some level of positive outcome for himself if he prevails. Cipolla says we shouldn’t regard such self-interest behavior as stupid. In fact, he holds that it’s quite logical and perfectly human. This will be on the test: Stupid people cause harm when their behavior benefits no one – including themselves.

Now that we’re properly oriented, let’s see where we can find stupid in our world today. 

When “stupid politics” is redundant

Whoa! That didn’t take long.

You may not be surprised that the immediate result of our search for stupidity lands us in the middle of contemporary U.S. political debate. Someone once allowed that “the Democrat Party is the evil party, and the Republican Party is the stupid party.”

History is replete with examples of political debate getting out of hand. Ask Julius Ceasar.  Or Alexander Hamilton. But, thankfully, historically, most political debates have ended in a very non-stupid state – a compromise. Cipolla calls that behavior “intelligent.” It’s the opposite of stupid, because everyone gets something they can live with. And you’ll recognize a fully executed, hard-fought intelligent transaction when you see it, because both sides will have a tear in their eyes. 

Alas, the wages of the stupid – harm – seem to increasingly prevail over the fruit of compromise – progress. And today, this imbalance lives prominently at the geopolitical level of the national debate.

The Vandenberg Resolution
Once upon a time, in a galaxy far, far away, a maxim was coined by one of America’s bipartisan champions, Senator Arthur Vandenberg, (R-MI). Post WWII, the Senator proposed that in matters of national security, international relations and geopolitics, Congress should defer to the Executive. The Commander-in-Chief should be given the benefit of the doubt and not weakened abroad by internal political differences. And for several decades thereafter, with rare exceptions, American political differences stopped “at waters’ edge.”

The power of this practice was both simple and sensible, based on two immutables: 1) countries don’t have friends, they have interests; and 2) the United States of America, warts and all, the only benign superpower on Earth, is outnumbered by the malevolent states.  

Therefore, as galling as it may be for the rotating “loyal opposition” to accept, to violate Vandenberg would be like rooting for the opposing team.  Who does that?

When stupid shifted a paradigm
Unfortunately, as my late friend and revered futurist Joel Barker taught us, the paradigm has shifted.

As an Earthling, if you value life, liberty and humanity, irrespective of political philosophy, the multi-layered Iranian regime is a threat to all you hold dear. As dastardly as other “nuclear” countries may be, for over 80 years, the world has been spared a nuclear event thanks to a concept Cipolla would classify as intelligent: MAD – Mutually Assured Destruction.  So-armed nations have recognized that unleashing a nuclear attack would almost certainly result in a lose-lose scenario, which would be contrary to their fundamental negotiating goals – to win AND survive.

Up to now, employing any kind of nuclear weapon has been recognized as the essence of Cipolla’s Third Law: stupid behavior that could define existential.

So, with all the monomaniacal behavior of the Iranian regime – now several layers deeper than previously thought – in what Bizarro World is managing this global threat not the perfect application of Vandenberg’s Resolution? Even if you’re not compelled to help, at least don’t hurt.

Only the stupid would lend leverage to an entrenched belief system that defines success as not merely the conquering, but the annihilation of an entire populace, including their diaspora. Plus, that singular benign superpower and it’s 342 million citizens. Even if it kills you and every Iranian citizen.

If you viscerally denounce a president’s social media posts; when you attempt some political advantage from a policy you think is “wrong for America;” even if you hypocritically rail against the appropriation of a practice your side of the aisle invented and used for decades,  I’ll defend to the death your right to take those positions. Because inside our “waters’ edge,” where “politics ain’t beanbag,” there can always be hope that our passionate positions will set us on a coarse to compromise.

But, outside of the CCP and Politburo, who supports the Iranian regime’s prime goal of unfettered possession of nuclear material and technology?  As it turns out, apparently, some who personify Cipolla’s Third Law.

Ut prius – the most dangerous stupid

In 2006, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi loved us up by declaring his county’s feelings toward America were both post hoc and ut prius, “We love everything Americans do. We even love what they do before they do it.”  

It’s your right – and not stupid at all – to passionately protest something I do or say, including if I forecast my intentions. But what do we call it when advanced opposition is assured ut prius – before it exists or even proposed?  Before being appraised for value. Before it’s known who, if anyone, will benefit or be harmed.

Since such behavior is so patently illogical, it qualifies under Cipolla’s Third Law: it’s stupid.

When an obvious quest for political gain results in condemnation of everything a president does, including violating Vandenberg, while that administration attempts to defuse a murderous regime’s single-minded devotion to acquiring nuclear weapons, you’ve crossed the Rubicon between a tear in everyone’s eye to everyone losing. You’ve telegraphed your opposition – ut prius.

And that, according to Cipolla, is stupid.

Today, sadly, political stupidity is manifesting as a kind of viral derangement syndrome fueled by no less than hate. The last half of the definition of hate provides this judgment: it can have a destructive effect on the individual and communities.

If the Iranian regime is motivated by hatred of Israel and America, how does more hate contribute to a resolution? Wouldn’t that be stupid?

Going forward, whenever we observe anyone seeking political gain when such behavior could actually cause harm to everyone, we can thank Cipolla for providing us with a precise and handy label.

Let’s call it, “Cipolla’s First Law of Politics: Don’t be stupid.”

__________________________________
Jim Blasingame is one of the world’s foremost thought-leaders on entrepreneurship and the Main Street economy.

Filed Under: Ethics / Trust, Global affairs, Government / Politics, Leadership, Management Fundamentals, National and Global Economy, Negotiating, Trade: Import, Export, Globalization Tagged With: Berlusconi, Bizarro, Carlo Cipolla, CCP, Congress, Democratic Party, GOP, Iran, IRGC, Israel, MAD, Middle East, Mutually Assured Destruction, Nuclear, Paradigm, Politburo, politics, Republican Party, Strait of Hormuz, TDS, Trump, Ut prius, Vandenberg

Beware The High Price Of Free Information

April 12, 2022 by Jim Blasingame

Stone Age humans had about 2.5 million years to prepare for the Bronze Age, followed by 2,000 years to transition to the Iron Age, which lasted about 800 years. Meanwhile, modern humans, barely in the third decade of the 21st century, are dealing with the 50-something Digital Age transmogrifying into the Information Age at the speed of light, literally in front of our eyes.

No other human generation in history has ever had to make this kind of shift.

A wise person once said that the most powerful force in civilization is information. Well, today, humans are awash in that power in the form of digital records of everything from “Breaking News!” to virtually everything that’s ever been said, written, or happened since Og and Gog invented the wheel in the Stone Age. And the following points represent the two sides of the Information Age Paradox:  [Continue Reading]

Filed Under: Entrepreneurship, Government / Politics, Leadership, Management Fundamentals, National and Global Economy, Start Ups Tagged With: Availability Cascade, economy, entrepreneurship, Information Age, small business owner

Can Your Business Survive Accelerating Inflation?

March 7, 2022 by Jim Blasingame

The current inflation rate is 7.5% and trending the wrong way. Since you probably already don’t charge enough, what’s your plan now?

You might think that a rude and presumptuous opener, but it’s intended as a tough-love reality check for which you’ll thank me later. Because no business owner has experienced such a spike in inflation since Carter tossed the White House keys to Reagan and “The Jeffersons” replaced “All in the Family” on TV. That was more than 40 years ago when inflation was double today’s rate.

Those facts are why we’re going to discuss the impact of inflation on your pricing strategy. Wait! What? You do have one of those, don’t you? I’ll give you a minute. [Continue Reading]

Filed Under: Business Planning, Entrepreneurship, Finance / Accounting / Taxes, Management Fundamentals, National and Global Economy, Start Ups, Uncategorized Tagged With: entrepreneurship, inflation, management fundamentals, pricing strategy, small business

Will America And The World Survive The Climate Change Church?

January 31, 2021 by Jim Blasingame

If a company quadrupled sales while simultaneously reducing all expenses to levels from 30 years ago, it would be celebrated from Main Street to Wall Street. Books would be written about such performance and that model would be taught in schools as a clinic on operating excellence.

Well, that story is the metaphor for how the U.S. has balanced economic production and carbon emissions. But instead of celebrating and building on that success story, the Biden administration has embarked on a quixotic agenda that in one policy motion will punish the U.S. economy for its unmatched performance, and in perverse irony, likely do harm to the climate.

And the lost opportunity and increased energy cost will disproportionately hurt America’s small businesses. Recently in an online poll, we asked small business owners, “How will the climate plans of the Biden administration impact your business?” Almost 80% rejected the new president’s energy agenda as damaging to their business.

[Continue Reading]

Filed Under: Government / Politics, National and Global Economy

Reconciling Blasingame’s 2020 Crystal Ball Predictions

November 28, 2020 by Jim Blasingame

Since 2000, I’ve offered prognostications on what was coming at small businesses in the New Year. Then, at the end of each year, I’ve reconciled my predictions against what actually happened and gave myself a score.

Through the 20 editions prior to 2020, my accuracy record was 73%. That might not impress you, but in the Major Leagues, batting .730 would get you into Cooperstown on the first ballot. Just saying … 

As the third decade of the 21st century dawned, my 21st set of predictions, published on January 5, were heavily influenced by three-years of Main Street optimism about the momentum of the U.S. economy. But then, in less than 90 days, everything changed. An organic invader turned our reality from halcyon to horrific in a way that only Chinese President Xi Jinping could have anticipated.

In our history, never have American business owners had to simultaneously fear that a deadly disease would attack their families and the political response to that pathogen might kill their businesses.

Because of the unprecedented weirdness of this year, scoring my 2020 predictions as I have in the past isn’t possible. Reading the list will either produce a wry smile, a cringe, or an expletive. Consequently, this year I’ll follow each prediction with appropriate commentary without a score – even when I was right. Some of my predictions have been omitted from the original list because the pandemic either made them irrelevant or moved them forward. Buckle up for a bumpy ride.

[Continue Reading]

Filed Under: Demographics, Generations, Entrepreneurship, Futuring, National and Global Economy

The Presidential Candidates’ Record on Small Business – Part II

October 24, 2020 by Jim Blasingame

As noted in Part I, prior to every presidential election since 2000, I’ve compared the two major-party presidential candidates based on their performance and promises regarding top small business concerns.  Part I of this two-part series covered the economy, taxes, and regulations. Part II covers health care, entrepreneurship, energy, and the pandemic.

Mr. Biden regularly references his direct contribution to Obama administration policies: “I’m the guy who … “ is the prefix of statements lauding his accomplishments from 2009-2016.  Since he’s running on that record, we’ll follow Mr. Biden’s lead and attribute that two-term record to him.

As also noted in Part I, small business owners don’t have to like a customer or vendor to do business with them. Main Street operators favor performance over personality. As our grandmothers would say, “The proof’s in the pudd’n.”

[Continue Reading]

Filed Under: Coronavirus, Entrepreneurship, Government / Politics, National and Global Economy

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