Standing here on the threshold of the third decade of the 21st century, we’ve watched the Digital Age transmogrify into the Information Age. Now awash with a digital record of everything that’s ever been said, written or happened, from area news to Aristotle’s ethical teachings, the barrier to whatever else we need or want to know is literally no higher than the tap of a finger. And if being up-to-the-minute isn’t fast enough, we now have the world, and parts of the cosmos, available in real-time.
And all of this information is a good thing — until it isn’t. In his song, “Against the Wind,” Bob Seger lamented that deadlines and commitments made him have to decide, “What to leave in, what to leave out.” As digitally driven information morphs from handy to firehose overload, we have to learn how to consume it with increasing discernment – what to leave in, what to leave out.
As the children of the Information Age, we’re constantly and increasingly at risk of becoming victims and/or purveyors of a potentially dangerous phenomenon: Availability Cascade. It occurs when we’re exposed to something so much — a maxim, a meme, misinformation or disinformation — that we begin to accept it as truth and reality, and worse, act on it without confirming accuracy or relevance. Here’s an old story from the Analog Age that demonstrates the power of Availability Cascade.
National and Global Economy
Jim Blasingame’s 2018 Crystal Ball Predictions — and what actually happened
Here are my 2018 predictions and what actually happened. My prior, 18-year accuracy is 73%.
Tech Stuff
1. Prediction: As a technology platform, blockchain stops being a novelty in 2018.
Actual: Every major corporation and government now has a blockchain strategy. +1
2. Multi-year prediction: Blockchain will be the next Internet-class disruption.
Actual: Blockchain variations are becoming the future of Digital Trust, and therefore, more disruptive to any analog legacy entities. +1
3. Prediction: As your online activity grows – digital tools, games, social media, IOT, etc. – you’ll become increasingly aware that you are, in fact, the product being sold.
Actual: Surveys show online users are becoming increasingly concerned and discerning of their online behavior, especially social media. +1
4. Prediction: Scrutiny of Big Data platforms, like Google, Facebook, Amazon, will increase regarding manipulation, privacy and security.
Actual: Congress, the E.U. and users are investigating behavior of these platforms. +1
5. Prediction: Bitcoin will not become a stable store of value (see Tulipomania).
Actual: In the past 365 days, Bitcoin peaked at $19,783 on the way to below $4,000 and dropping. +1
What caused the 2008 Financial Crisis and could it happen again?
This week marks the 10th anniversary of one of the most dramatic series of events in human history, when raw, unmitigated greed was allowed to leverage itself, virtually unchecked, to a disastrous end. I’m talking about the Financial Crisis of 2008.
On January 6, nine months before the collapse, part of my 2008 Predictions included this: “There will not be a national crisis of mortgage foreclosures.”
As noted above, there was a financial crisis that year. A devastating one. But my prediction was correct, because unlike what you may have heard, that crisis was not caused by mortgage foreclosures, sub-prime or otherwise.
The Financial Crisis of 2008 was caused by how Wall Street banks packaged and sold bundles of home mortgages – called tranches – as securities. Creating these securities wasn’t the problem. Mortgage-backed securities have long been an essential funding source of the home-ownership pillar of the American dream. This crisis was caused by that unmitigated greed.
Jim Blasingame’s 2018 Crystal Ball Predictions
Here are my 2018 predictions. My 18-year accuracy is 73%.
Tech Stuff
1. Remember this prediction I made in 2016? “Expect to hear more about blockchain technology, disconnected from Bitcoin.” As a technology platform, blockchain stops being a novelty in 2018.
2. Multi-year prediction: Blockchain, and variations on the theme, will be the next Internet-class disruption, except it will be a much greater one. You’ve been warned.
3. Crypto-currency (Bitcoin is just one of many) is the money of the future, but the future isn’t here yet. As long as there’s high speculation in a currency – crypto or otherwise – it won’t be a dependable, stable store of value (see Tulipomania).
4. You’ll become increasingly aware of a new concept – digital ethics – as you discover that by using apps, games, social media, virtual/augmented reality, digital assistants, etc., you and your online behavior, are in fact, the product being sold.
5. One positive result of the above prediction will be your increased scrutiny of how Big Corporations employ digital leverage -artificial intelligence, Big Data, etc. – regarding manipulation, privacy and security.
Jim Blasingame’s 2017 predictions reconciled
1. The U.S. economy will expand at 3% GDP growth. Actual: 2.75% annual GDP. The last three quarters over 3% couldn’t cover 1.2% in Q1. -1
2. Eight years of record regulation growth will reverse in 2017. Actual: Trump’s 2 for 1 regulatory order resulted in essentially no new regs in 2017 (CEI). +1
3. The NFIB Index will report small business optimism increasing for the first time in eight years. Actual: The Index set 44-year optimism records all year. +1
4. After eight years of deleveraging, small business profitability will increase. Actual: NFIB reports dramatic 2017 profits growth. +1
5. For the first time in eight years, small business borrowing will increase. Actual: Up, but only slightly (ICBA). +1