Here are my 2018 predictions and what actually happened. My prior, 18-year accuracy is 73%.
Tech Stuff
1. Prediction: As a technology platform, blockchain stops being a novelty in 2018.
Actual: Every major corporation and government now has a blockchain strategy. +1
2. Multi-year prediction: Blockchain will be the next Internet-class disruption.
Actual: Blockchain variations are becoming the future of Digital Trust, and therefore, more disruptive to any analog legacy entities. +1
3. Prediction: As your online activity grows – digital tools, games, social media, IOT, etc. – you’ll become increasingly aware that you are, in fact, the product being sold.
Actual: Surveys show online users are becoming increasingly concerned and discerning of their online behavior, especially social media. +1
4. Prediction: Scrutiny of Big Data platforms, like Google, Facebook, Amazon, will increase regarding manipulation, privacy and security.
Actual: Congress, the E.U. and users are investigating behavior of these platforms. +1
5. Prediction: Bitcoin will not become a stable store of value (see Tulipomania).
Actual: In the past 365 days, Bitcoin peaked at $19,783 on the way to below $4,000 and dropping. +1
Economy/Small Business
6. Prediction: The U.S. economy will grow at over 3% GDP in 2018.
Actual: 2018 GDP was 3.3% through September, with Q4 anticipated to be 2.9%. +1
7. Prediction: Small business growth and optimism will continue.
Actual: Small business optimism hit new, 45-year record highs in 2018 (NFIB). +1
8. Prediction: Lower regulations and taxes will help small businesses achieve higher profitability through pricing power.
Actual: For the first time in over a decade, small businesses report the confidence to raise prices (NFIB). +1
9. Prediction: Even with economic expansion, strong balance sheets will hold small business loan requests to a minimal increase – again.
Actual: Continuing to fund growth with retained earnings, loan applications increased only slightly this year (NFIB). +1
10. Prediction: Finding qualified employees will continue to be the greatest impediment to growth for all businesses.
Actual: Every survey reports the number one business challenge as a lack of qualified employee prospects. +1
11. Prediction: A combination of the new tax law and shifts in demographic behavior (read: Millennials), will disrupt the real estate industry in 2018.
Actual: Home-builders and realtors both report low inventory and low demand for home ownership. +1
12. Prediction: One benefit of the new tax law: If an overdue and justified Wall Street correction happens, it won’t be catastrophic.
Actual: A strong U.S. economy has given nerve to a jittery stock market looking for any reason to correct. +1
13. Prediction: Corporate America will not invest their disproportionate tax cut in the economy commensurate with the cuts.
Actual: Headline – “The tax cut windfall funds corporate stock buy-backs at $1 TRILLION in 2018” (Goldman). +1
14. Prediction: Corporate America will not repatriate and invest offshore income commensurate with the disproportionate tax benefit.
Actual: Headline – “Of over $4 trillion in overseas profits, less than $200 billion have been repatriated in 2018” (WSJ). +1
15. Prediction: The Fed will raise interest rates at least twice.
Actual: The Fed raised rates three times in 2018 – so far. +1
16. Prediction: U.S. status as an energy net-exporter will significantly influence the economy, geopolitics, the war on terrorism, even climate change.
Actual: U.S. energy independence is increasingly a powerful lever for trade negotiations, geopolitical influence, and natural gas boom has helped us lead the world in CO2 emission reduction per dollar of GDP. +1
17. Prediction: The U.S. energy exporter status will offset price pressures from OPEC and Middle East tensions to hold crude oil’s average below $60bbl for another year.
Actual: Crude averaged over $70bbl in 2018. -1
Politics/Global/Football
18. Prediction: President Trump and Congressional GOP will take another run at repealing and replacing Obamacare remnants.
Actual: Notice I didn’t say “would repeal.” Trump made reform progress with executive orders, and Congressional GOP produced repeal legislation, but John McCain ignominiously and single-handedly killed it. +1
19. Prediction: A stronger economy and lower regulations will increase the President’s approval rating.
Actual: 2017 average rating was 35%, 2018 rating as of this writing, 46%. +1
20. Prediction: Trump will nominate one Supreme Court Justice in 2018.
Actual: Brett Kavanaugh, new Associate Justice. +1
21. Prediction: We’ll be more likely to experience a major cyber-attack than a physical terrorist event.
Actual: Multiple experts report cyber-attacks increasingly more imminent and perilous than physical threats. +1
22. Prediction: Trump will trade support of DACA for Democrat border wall votes.
Actual: Breaking News – Experts report DACA-for-Wall is the bargain being discussed. +1
23. Prediction: Democrats will be unsuccessful in making immigration a major 2018 campaign position.
Actual: Not sure how much was immigration, but the Dems were extremely successful in the 2018 election. -1
24. Prediction: Sanctuary cities and states will be the most dramatic challenge to President Trump’s authority.
Actual: This didn’t rise to the threat level in 2018. -1
25. Prediction: Unprecedented for any past president, Obama will aggressively campaign for Democrat candidates in the mid-terms.
Actual: Obama’s 2018 campaigning was as self-referential as it was unprecedented and sad. +1
26. Prediction: For the first time in almost 30 years, the Clintons will see limited action in a campaign season.
Actual: Bill and Hillary, MIA. +1
27. Prediction: There will be a showdown between the U.S. and North Korea – but not a war.
Actual: The Trump/Kim negotiations were tantamount to a “showdown,” and did cool off tensions, if not yet verified denuclearization. +1
28. Prediction: If control of Congress changes hands in 2018 it will be due to illness or scandal, not voters.
Actual: Big miss. Think of the sound of a plane spinning, crashing and burning. The GOP is lucky to keep the Senate. -1
29. Prediction: The 2018 College Football Championship: Bama in a squeaker for the ages.
Actual: Bama 26, Georgia 23 in OT. Remember, the Tide hadn’t even defeated Clemson to get to the Championship. +1
Write this on a rock … My foresight was good in 2018 with 86.2% accuracy. This salves my 2008 disaster a little, and raises my 19-year average to 73.7%. How’d you do? Look for my 20th predictions for 2019 soon.