Jim Blasingame

Business futurist, award-winning author, speaker and columnist

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Futuring

The New Regular: Your Cheese Has Been Moved

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These are rough days on Main Street. Business owners are experiencing extreme stress and anxiety, unprecedented in cause, abruptness, velocity, and impact. 

Just now we’re dealing with a one-two punch to our lives and livings. The first blow was from a novel coronavirus pandemic and the second from the shutdown response to it. 

The shutdown punch – however necessary and politically-variable – has dealt a devastating financial blow to millions of small firms. And as the arc of the disease danger seems to be descending, business owners are increasingly struggling with an unprecedented internal conflict I’ve termed “Owner’s Choice”: Having to daily reassess the risk of a deadly disease against ongoing damage to their family’s financial future.  

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A big black bird is coming at you. Are you prepared?

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What do a rock, a flea, and a plate have in common with a small business? Hint: they’re all associated with surprise and danger. Any ideas?

Here’s another hint: a bird is sometimes used to refer to them. Anything yet? Okay, I’ll stop.

The rock is the dinosaur-killing asteroid that slammed into what is now the Gulf of Mexico 65 million years ago. The flea contributed to wiping out half of Europe during the Dark Ages. The plate was the tectonic kind that slipped on Boxing Day 2004, creating the south Asia, 9.3 megathrust earthquake and tsunami. And that small business? Patience, grasshopper. I’ll get to that in a minute. But first, about that bird …

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What politicians, small business and mice have in common

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As we stand here on the threshold of another national election year, it’s appropriate to turn to the legendary book by the late Dr. Spencer Johnson. Who Moved My Cheese? tells the story of four characters who ate only one thing: cheese.

Every day, all four characters went to a specific place in their world – a maze – where they found cheese. The first two were not picky about their cheese, nor where they found it – it was just food they found in a place. Then, one day – you guessed it – somebody moved their cheese. These two unfinicky fromage finders immediately began looking for the new place where cheese was being put.

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Jim Blasingame’s 2020 crystal ball predictions

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Here are my 2020 Predictions – my 21st set – by major category. Through 20 years, my record is 73% accuracy.

Small Business

Prediction: Small business confidence will remain strong for the fourth consecutive year, exceeding the NFIB Index’s almost half-century average.

Prediction: For the 13th straight year, small businesses will continue to limit borrowed capital and rely on organic resources to fund growth.

Prediction: The USMCA and China trade deals will deliver direct and indirect economic benefits for U.S. Main Street businesses.

Prediction: A growing number of state minimum wage increases will cause harm to the least of the marketplace participants: the smallest small businesses and low-skilled workers.

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Jim Blasingame reconciles his 2019 Predictions

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Allow me to reconcile my 2019 Predictions from a year ago – my 20th edition – with what happened. Up to now, I’m batting .733.

Small Business

Prediction: Small business confidence will again record levels above NFIB’s 45-year average.
Actual: NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism finishes well above the multi-decade average of 98 points: +1

Prediction: Millions of Baby Boomer business owners will be challenged in divesting to the next generation.
Actual: Research shows (Kaufman) and books have been written (“Boomer Bust”) about the unprecedented challenge of older owners selling to the next generations: +1

Prediction: Stronger financial conditions will help small businesses deal with economic headwinds.
Actual: The best indicator is how well the small business sector has weathered the global trade issues while supporting those strategies: +1

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